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The Effect of Mortgage Securitization on Foreclosure and Modification

scholar.harvard.eduJune 22, 2013

Citation:

Kruger, Samuel. 2013. The Effect of Mortgage Securitization on Foreclosure and Modification.

Abstract:

Does securitization affect the foreclosure and modification decisions of mortgage servicers? I exploit the third quarter 2007 freeze of private mortgage securitization as an exogenous change in probability of securitization for jumbo mortgages. The unanticipated freeze left banks holding mortgages that were intended for securitization when they were originated. Loans made shortly before the freeze are similar to loans made earlier in the year but were significantly less likely to be securitized. Using origination-month as an instrument for jumbo securitization, I estimate that before the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) private securitization increased foreclosure probability (by 8.7 ppt for foreclosure initiation and 5.2 ppt for foreclosure completion) and decreased modification probability (by 2.3 ppt). After implementation of HAMP, privately securitized loans are no longer biased against modification, but the foreclosure bias persists.

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